News and Views from the Dismal Science

Dr. Econ's commentary on local, regional, national, and global economic affairs

This column is to appear in the Augusta Business Chronicle (December 2000).

Good News -- The Presidential Election is Tied

As of this writing (in mid-November), it is still not clear who won the US presidential election. But we do know that whoever  formally assumes office in January 2001 will not be in possession of a clearly expressed "mandate by the American people." Even a popular vote differential of 100,000 votes – let alone a few hundred Florida votes – amounts to only one tenth of one percent of the roughly 100 million votes cast and is therefore far too small to declare anyone a "winner" other than in a formal, legalistic way.

Let us therefore wholeheartedly accept that, in practical terms, both of the major candidates won. The race for the presidency is tied. Period. But as in football games, so in elections, Americans abhor ties. We would rather play overtime and decide – right here, right now – the "winner." But tied the presidential race is, and no amount of vote re-counting will make me think that one or the other candidate "won."

But is a tied vote really as bad as people and the media appear to think? Being of European extraction, I am very much used to ties. Indeed, I like them. Soccer games often are tied; and so are European elections resulting in coalition governments whose constituent parties are forced to compromise in order to get anything done at all. Thus, a tied US election – and remember that the new US House of Representatives and the US Senate are also essentially tied – may be good news. 

The good news is that a divided executive and legislative branch is likely to result in spending less of taxpayers' money on frivolous matters. The good news probably also is that the two sides will have difficulty agreeing on tax cuts, therefore leading to rising budget surpluses that will provide the necessary financial cushion to further reduce the national debt while shoring up the Social Security and Medicare accounts at the same time. The good news is that the economy will continue to be run primarily by the Federal Reserve Bank, not by Congress and the President.

The good news is that Congress and the President have the opportunity, for yet another four years, to focus on fundamental long-run issues, such as the health, education, and personal safety as far as the population and labor force is concerned, and to focus on fostering a conducive environment for the long-run private and public improvement of our physical infrastructure. The private sector will take care of itself so long as federal, state, and local government intervention is minimally intrusive; the public sector needs to rebuild a crumbling interstate highway system and to undertake drastic improvements in seaports and airports and related infrastructure. It also needs to continue to secure our natural resource base, including safeguarding our air, water, and soil.

The good news is that all this will take place, if it takes place at all, within the bounds of a relatively stable external security environment. Contrary to Mr. Bush's and Mr. Gore's campaign statements, US military spending can be safely reduced since the  share of US military spending has been rising drastically as a percentage of worldwide military spending since the end of the cold war. In a word, there is plenty of actual and potential money to do all the right, good things that need doing. A closely divided Congress is the best possible political environment to bring about real debate, compromise, and pressure to do the proper things for the entire nation, rather than financing merely one party's favored list of things to benefit but half the nation's voters.

With all this good news, what can go wrong? Plenty – but only if the two parties and their candidates continue to bicker childishly instead of recognizing that the country voted for both of them and thereby imposed upon them the obligation to compromise and jointly do the nation's business.



Dr. J. Brauer is Professor of Economics at Augusta State University's College of Business Administration. He can best be reached via his web site (http://www.aug.edu/~sbajmb).